MLB: Cal Raleigh's American League MVP Case Is No Joke — Can the Mariners’ Ironback Catcher Overtake Aaron Judge?

It’s turning into a slugfest for the American League MVP — and not the one many expected.

Seattle’s Cal Raleigh has muscled his way into the conversation, shaking up what’s long looked like Aaron Judge’s award to lose. On Thursday, Raleigh did what he’s done all year: carried the Mariners with a solo home run in a 1-0 win. It was classic Seattle 2025 — one big swing from the catcher they now call “Ironback” doing just enough to seal a win.

Sure, Judge is still the betting favorite at a whopping -650 on BetMGM. Raleigh trails at +300, with Detroit’s Tarik Skubal way behind at +8000. But those odds don’t tell the full story.

Let’s look at the numbers:

Aaron Judge
AVG/OBP/SLG: .346/.455/.714
HR: 36
RBI: 82
Runs: 89
bWAR/fWAR: 7.0 / 7.2

Cal Raleigh
AVG/OBP/SLG: .256/.370/.619
HR: 39
RBI: 84
Runs: 68
bWAR/fWAR: 5.0 / 6.2

Judge is crushing in terms of batting average and OPS+, but don’t discount the impact of Raleigh doing what he’s doing from behind the plate — arguably the most demanding position in baseball. He’s played 76 games at catcher, another 24 as DH. That’s a heavy workload, and yet he’s still on pace for 63 home runs — something no catcher in history has ever accomplished.

The current record for a catcher is 48 (Salvador Perez, 2021). If Raleigh breaks that and Seattle punches a ticket to October, it’s not just a stat — it becomes a narrative. And narratives matter in MVP races.

While Judge’s Yankees are two games ahead of Seattle in the standings, Raleigh’s value might be more concentrated. Outside of a scorching stretch by Randy Arozarena, no one else on the Mariners is even close in production. The difference in RBI + Runs between the two players? Practically identical: 171 for Judge, 152 for Raleigh.

Factor in potential voter fatigue (Judge already owns two MVPs in the last three years), and the door opens just enough for a late surge. Yes, Yankee Stadium boosts offense, but advanced stats like OPS+ and wRC+ account for park effects — and Raleigh is still hanging tough.

Oh, and about market bias? The BBWAA MVP voting structure guarantees two voters per MLB city — so Seattle’s voice counts just as much as New York’s.

At this point, it’s not just about stats. It’s about storylines. And the tale of a hard-nosed catcher making history in a pitcher’s park while leading a playoff team? That’s a vote-worthy epic.

The MVP race isn’t over — not even close.

MainEvent.News | Backstage Take:

The MVP isn’t won in July, but make no mistake — Cal Raleigh is closing the gap. The Mariners’ slugging backstop isn’t just chasing history; he’s redefining what’s possible from behind the plate. Judge may have the flash, but Raleigh has the grind — and sometimes, that’s what voters remember most come October.